Posted To: MBS Commentary

All things being equal, today was a fine day for the bond market. Sure, 10yr yields ended the day 2bps higher than yesterday's latest levels, but in the recent context, they're better thought of as "sideways at the best levels in a long time." When bonds have improved as rapidly as they have over the past week, traders are keenly on the lookout for a big, corrective bounce. But we haven't seen one yet. We may not see one unless some fundamental motivation comes along in the form of exceptionally strong economic data at home or abroad. In today's case, exceptionally weak economic data provided the fundamental motivation bonds needed to hold on to the strong territory. It came in the form of Consumer Confidence (124.1 vs 132.0) at 10am ET. From that point on, rates never...(read more)

3/26/2019 3:51:16 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates took the day to do just a little bit more of what they've been doing in fairly grand fashion for the past week: MOVE LOWER! When the good times started in earnest (after last week's Fed Announcement), rates were already in line with their lowest levels in more than a year. As of today, they're another quarter or a percentage point (0.25%) lower. In other words, if you'd been looking at a quote of 4.375% last Tuesday, you'd likely be seeing 4.125% today. Whether or not that's the conventional 30yr fixed quote you're seeing depends on a variety of factors. But certainly, for anyone with more than 20% equity and strong credit/income, 4.125% is a given and 4.0% is increasingly available. Seeing 4.0% means that a few of the most aggressive lenders are going to be offering 3.875% on...(read more)

3/26/2019 2:26:00 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

FHA is reversing an earlier decision to remove the rule requiring manual underwriting for mortgages with credit scores below 620 and a ratio of debt to income above 43 percent. The decision, conveyed to lenders earlier this month, was presaged in the Fourth Quarter 2018 report to Congress regarding FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund Programs which expressed concern about the risk posed by recent originations. The report, submitted in February by Keith N. Becker, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Office of Risk Management and Regulatory Affairs pointed to a gradual change in the distribution of borrower credit scores. In the 2018 fiscal year the share of 680 to 850 credit scores continued to decline. The average credit score for borrowers fell to 670, the lowest level in a decade. "FHA's credit risk...(read more)

3/26/2019 12:43:15 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices and the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA's) Housing Price Index paints two different pictures of the housing market in January . The former calls the appreciation in that month "the smallest in four years," while FHFA's index posted a January price surge. Case-Shiller's U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.3 percent annual gain in January on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis. In December the annual increase was 4.6 percent. On a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis prices grew 0.2 percent, but the NSA index lost 0.2 percent compared to December. Case-Shiller's two composite indices show similar deceleration. The 10-City Composite's annual gain dropped from 3.7 percent in December to 3.2 percent while...(read more)

3/26/2019 9:12:00 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Residential construction numbers continued to see-saw in February. Housing starts were particularly disappointing after their stellar performance in January. Completions is the only indicator that is running ahead of its 2018 counterpart. Permits for construction of residential units were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,296,000 units, a 1.6 percent decline from the January rate of 1,317,000 units, and the January number was a downward revision of the 1,345,000 units originally reported. Permits dipped by 2.0 percent from the February 2018 rate of 1,323,000. Analysts polled by Econoday were forecasting authorizations in the range of 1,290,000 to 1,320,000 units. The consensus was 1,300,000. Single-family permits were issued at an annual rate of 821,000, unchanged from the revised...(read more)

3/26/2019 8:10:00 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Quite a few talking heads and analysts referred to last Wednesday's post-Fed rally as 'overdone.' They pointed to Thursday's moderate weakness as evidence that bonds would have a hard time making further progress at the new long-term lows. When the rally extended sharply on Friday in the overnight session, pundits doubled down on the 'overdone' calls, saying surely a bounce was imminent. A few hours later, weak Markit PMIs in the US launched yields even lower prompting--you guessed it--even more calls for a jarring return to reality in the following week. If you were around yesterday, you know that such a return (to higher yields) never happened . Bonds continued to defy calls for a bounce by surging as low as 2.377 yesterday afternoon. At that point, there were far...(read more)

3/26/2019 8:09:16 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

“Rob, are you hearing that the sudden increase in lock volume is from borrowers who had a lock with one lender moving to another lender?” Not yet, and let’s hope not, loans are “stickier” now, and that this practice was just something unscrupulous parties did in the past. But speaking of past events, Baby Boomers now own about 32 million homes (out of 137 million housing units in the U.S.). One issue in some Sunbelt real estate markets is that the design of those homes is out of style with younger folks who’d conceivably purchase them. So there’s a glut of big and pricey homes on the market in areas that cater to clusters of retirees, and let’s just say those who’d ideally buy them aren’t exactly known for being particularly liquid...(read more)

3/26/2019 6:59:38 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There were no significant economic reports today and no obvious market-moving news headlines. Nevertheless, bonds went on yet another snowball rally run to new long-term lows. Today's version was even more interesting than some of last week's examples. Case in point, 2yr yields ended the day down nearly 7bps while 30yr bonds barely gained any ground. What's up with that?! Part of the reason is the extent to which the opposite phenomenon was in fashion heading into the end of last week. Traders are booking profits on those curve flattener trades (betting on longer term yields falling to be closer to short-term yields). Profits on those trades could either be booked by selling longer-term bonds or buying short-term bonds. None of this is really important though! The fact is that rates...(read more)

3/25/2019 4:13:52 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates continued deeper into long-term lows today as the underlying bond market experiences its most impressive rally of the year. In a rally, bond prices are moving higher and rates are moving lower. This particular rally is bifurcated on several levels. On one level, different maturities of US Treasuries are moving at very different paces . For instance, the 2yr Treasury dropped by .07% today while the 30yr Treasury fell by less than 0.01%. This has to do with investors betting on central banks keeping short-term interest rates low (or cutting them to even lower levels) among other things. On another level, US Treasuries are moving at a very different pace compared to the bonds that underlie mortgages (mortgage-backed-securities or MBS). Part of last week's big news from the Fed spoke...(read more)

3/25/2019 3:20:00 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

From a calendar standpoint, the most notable thing about the week ahead is that it's the final week of the month/quarter. This usually means we'll see at least some trading happening for reasons that have nothing to do with data, events and headlines ( read more about "month-end" trading ). Thursday and Friday have the biggest potential for volatility in that regard. There will actually be plenty of economic data to digest. It's just that most of it has to do with the housing market , and typically doesn't pack the same sort of punch as the reports that moved markets last week. Incidentally, the exceptions also show up on Thursday and Friday (GDP, PCE inflation, Consumer Sentiment). From a technical standpoint, bonds are in the process of deciding if they have any...(read more)

3/25/2019 7:39:41 AM