Posted To: MBS Commentary

Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's Big Loss) Relative to the spectrum of possibilities, ending the week with 10yr Treasury yields under 1.1% is a big victory. Of course that wouldn't have been the case before last week, but everything's relative in the bond market. From here, we'll be watching this week's high yields very carefully for continued support. If rates are going to surge back below 1.0%, the justification for such a thing has yet to reveal itself. Next week is light on data, and bonds are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Retail Sales -0.7 vs 0.0 f'cast, -1.4 prev Core Annual PPI 1.2 vs 1.3 f'cast, 1.4 prev NY Fed Manufacturing 3.5 vs 6.0 f'cast...(read more)

1/15/2021 3:42:02 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

It was easy to get lulled into complacency by the second half of 2020 when it came to mortgage rates. Even as other indicators said rates should be rising, they continued on a calm journey to multiple record lows. 2021 has been very different so far! Covid and its impacts on the economy remain the driving forces behind market trends. That's generally been great for rates, but it also means that rates should gradually rise as we battle back against covid. If the onset of the pandemic pushed rates to all-time lows, it's only fair that progress against the pandemic would result in rates moving up from all-time lows. If you ask 10yr Treasury yields, that's been the case for quite a while. And while the stock market has been singing a similar tune, the mortgage market has been in its own glorious...(read more)

1/15/2021 3:41:00 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A decline in the number of forborne loans in those portfolios serviced for banks and private label securities (PLS) accounted for most of the modest downturn in overall numbers last week. Black Knight said the number of active plans dropped by 9,000 loans or 0.3 percent compared to the previous week. The the total of active plans is only 1.5 percent below where it was in December, continuing a recent trend of slowing improvement . "This further sets the stage for a great many plans to still be active when the first wave of forbearance plans begin to expire at the end of March, the Black Knight report says." Loans serviced for bank portfolios and private label securities (PLS) declined by 13,000 loans. This was partially offset by a 4,000-loan rise in FHA and VA loans. The number of forbearances...(read more)

1/15/2021 9:34:12 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac's first quarter 2021 economic forecast is unusually short, and, unlike recent forecasts from either of the GSEs, has relatively few revisions. The company's economists say that nearly a year after the first cases of COVID-19 were diagnosed in the U.S., economic growth remains uncertain, with answers largely hinging on the roll-out of the new vaccines. The labor market remains weak with close to 20 million collecting unemployment insurance. December's job losses, the first since last April, didn't change the unemployment rate from 6.7 percent because labor participation also declined. Record low mortgage rates continued to carry the housing market during the turmoil of the pandemic. At the end of the first week of 2021, the 30-year rate hit 2.65 percent, a new low. Freddie Mac expects...(read more)

1/15/2021 9:19:00 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Fannie Mae said that the standardization of servicing standards that followed the 2008 housing crisis appears to have helped the industry manage the recent flood of COVID-19 forbearance plans. The company included a series of questions about forbearance management in its September Lender Sentiment Survey and has now released a special report on the responses. Servicers had to move quickly to implement the forbearance programs, which were first announced by the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and by FHA but were then expanded and mandated by Congress under the CARES Act. They also had to manage the loans in forbearance, continue remittances to investors, and make insurance and tax payments out of escrow accounts. As the plans had three-month terms, borrowers had to be contacted to do renewals...(read more)

1/15/2021 9:17:51 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

As Flagstar’s Marcus L. points out, “1999 doesn't sound like that long ago until you realize that people with a birth year starting with ‘2’ are starting to be old enough to legally drink.” And plenty of them have student debt, the forgiveness of which is now in the press and could very well impact lending & home ownership in a positive way. All of these households and corporations, and the U.S. Government, refinancing debt at lower rates and saving money has to have a beneficial impact on finances and growth going forward, right? Rates are certainly impacting bank earnings, and their mortgage earnings. More about that tomorrow. Lender and Broker Jumbo, DPA, and Non-QM Products “If your New Year’s resolution was to roll out a NonQM product, eResi’s...(read more)

1/15/2021 9:02:18 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After the GA senate elections, the bond market immediately knew it needed to prepare for additional stimulus, even if moderate democratic voices might serve to limit the size and scope. We hazarded a guess that this was worth 10yr yields rising 25bps, roughly and finding support around 1.17%. Bond traders have now effectively made the same guess with yields switching into rally mode almost immediately after breaking above 1.17%. If that sell-off was based on the expectation for additional near-term stimulus, then last night's Biden speech was exactly what traders had priced in. The name of the game is "consolidation" now... the bridge... the intermission between the initial push up from super low covid-inspired yields and the significantly higher levels that traders can imagine...(read more)

1/15/2021 8:27:22 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds Playing it Extra Safe Ahead of Biden's Stimulus Details As we discussed yesterday, the strong mid-week rally suggested a good amount of short covering was behind the move. This merely means traders who bet on rising rates were finally cashing in. It doesn't mean there are lots of new buyers interested in owning Treasuries. Today's weakness supports this narrative. Traders are indeed hesitant to buy bonds until they have more clarity about the stimulus plan that the new administration will attempt to pass. Biden is expected to offer additional details tonight after markets are closed, but the real question is whether or not the plan can get moderate democratic votes in the senate. That may be the talk of the town tomorrow. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am...(read more)

1/14/2021 3:03:30 PM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

A few hours after markets closed yesterday, news began coming out regarding a Biden aide mentioning tonight's stimulus proposal would be in the $2 trillion neighborhood. That's quite a bit more than the $1.3 trillion that had been making the rounds a few hours prior (the same number was thrown around more than a month ago as well). Treasuries reacted to this overnight with a whopping sell-off of 3bps. This reflects the fact that markets have largely priced in some sort of $1.3+ trillion in additional spending/relief. We won't get a chance to any additional reaction until tomorrow's trading session, as Biden won't be speaking until after 7pm ET. It's another light day in terms of economic data, with Jobless Claims already out at 965k vs 795k forecast and 784k previously...(read more)

1/14/2021 8:48:10 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

With the money I’m saving on “Dry January,” I was able to buy some great edibles at the dispensary yesterday. “Come on, come on, listen to the money talk” sang AC DC. Wells Fargo’s stock price is up 60 percent since late Halloween… that’s money! Some are curious about bitcoin, with proponents saying it is the worldwide currency of the future while critics say… well, the list of what critics say is too long for this lead paragraph. But I found this article titled, “Lost Passwords Lock Millionaires Out of Their Bitcoin Fortunes” fascinating. “Bitcoin owners are getting rich because the cryptocurrency has soared. But what happens when you can’t access that wealth because you forgot the password to your digital wallet...(read more)

1/14/2021 8:20:02 AM