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Mortgage News Daily


Mortgage News Daily

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today was a non-starter, despite the presence of economic data that certainly had the street cred to move markets (if markets were inclined to move). GDP cam in stronger than expected at +1.2 vs +0.9 forecast, as did Durable Goods (-0.7 vs -1.2 forecast). The biggest counterpoint in the data was the weakness in the "Cap-Ex" component of Durable Goods (officially... "Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft") which came in at 0.0 vs 0.5 forecast. Think of Cap-Ex like the " core " component in the same way "Core CPI" is thought to be more relevant than plain old CPI. Whether the Cap-Ex miss was enough to justify bond market ground-holding is at moot point. Traders didn't trade the data either way. The day ended up being an opportunity for...(read more)

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5/26/2017 1:09:18 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Lenders that made detectable adjustments generally did so in a moderately positive direction. While this isn't remotely enough to make a difference in the actual NOTE rate on a mortgage quote, it could make for microscopically lower upfront costs (thereby affecting the "effective" rate). As far as note rates are concerned, most lenders continue quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates in a range centered on 4.0%. In terms of economic data--something that typically moves bond markets (and thus rates)--there were two key reports this morning. The 1st revision of Q1 GDP was slightly stronger than expected, rising to 1.2% from 0.7% previously. A separate report, Durable Goods Orders, was also stronger than expected, but contained some internal components that...(read more)

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5/26/2017 12:31:00 PM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Ready to rush off and join the blockchain rush? Not so fast. The implementation of blockchain technology in the financial-services industry is meeting some resistance, with enthusiasm not equating to industrywide rollout. Like GSE reform, it will take many years and while blockchain's potential for improving efficiency, security, and cost savings has been discussed, the commodity sector has concerns about loss of confidentiality, while other industry participants say formal regulation and oversight of the technology is needed . Capital Markets Tax reform looks increasingly unlikely this year as Republican rhetoric shifts to simple tax cuts, says Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore. Both sides of the political aisle contain ample support for tax reform , he says, but the Republican majority has failed to...(read more)

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5/26/2017 6:54:54 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Up until yesterday, the past week and a half of trading ran the risk of taking the shape of an uptrend leading back from the lows that followed last week's political drama. Things have been surprisingly quiet on the headline front when it comes to said drama. Even the rumor mill has been slow to churn. This has facilitated an "openness" on the part of bond markets to put more stock in other events and data. The most obvious turning point over this time was Wednesday's FOMC Minutes (which account for the big bounce in the chart below). Subsequent trading has vetted that bounce and contributed to more of a sideways vibe (as opposed to the uptrend that had been intact--shown in the white lines in the lower pane of the chart). Today's only major data will hit presently in...(read more)

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5/26/2017 6:28:39 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After seeing today's trading--especially when we consider it in the context of recent technical levels and yesterday's bounce around 2.25% in 10yr yields--it seems increasingly clear that bonds are doing that thing they sometimes do as the weekend is approaching. Namely, they've entered a narrow, sideways range, and they look none too interested in breaking higher or lower unless given a compelling reason. In the current case, the range is roughly 2.25-2.27 . We spent a few moments trading just slightly lower today, but those were the exceptions to the rule during domestic hours. The morning economic data was irrelevant (no one cares about Jobless Claims any more), and the afternoon's Treasury auction was taken in stride (slightly less than "strong" in terms of the...(read more)

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5/25/2017 2:54:47 PM

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates fell today despite relatively uneventful movement in underlying bond markets (which drive day to day changes in rates). The net improvement can be explained by the timing of yesterday's improvement. Simply put, bonds improved late in the day (following the 2pm release of the Fed Minutes). That market improvement was too late in the day for some lenders to reissue rate sheets. Lenders who DID improve yesterday afternoon nonetheless held back just a bit, as it's customary to make sure late day market gains stick around the following morning before fully adjusting rate sheets to reflect the gains. For the average borrower at the average lender, this equates to a modest reduction in the upfront costs associated with the same old rates that have been in play all week. Most lenders...(read more)

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5/25/2017 2:08:00 PM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Rather than taking a step back this year, home sales now seem ready to best their 2016 numbers. Freddie Mac's economists admit that, up until this month, their expectations were for the former (i.e. a 'step back'), but based on recent data, they now see the U.S. housing market "on track to eclipse last year as the best in over a decade." The company's May Outlook credits housing's strong launch into 2017 in part to the surprising downward drift of interest rates since March. Favorable rates, along with strong job growth, have bolstered housing demand, even as economic growth remains tepid-only 0.7 percent GDP growth in Q1. Still, despite the slow growth, blamed to a large degree on weak consumer demand, the labor market "keeps plugging along" with the lowest unemployment rate since 2001 (4...(read more)

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5/25/2017 9:09:37 AM

Posted To: MND NewsWire

It often gets lost in the shuffle, but the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is not just the regulator and conservator of the government sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it also regulates the Federal Home Loan Banking System (FHLBank). Melvin L. Watt, Director of FHFA spoke to directors of those banks on Tuesday, at their Directors' Conference. Watt said that the System had its most profitable year ever in 2016, with net earnings of $3.4 billion. This, however, was in part due to litigation settlements over private label securities which contributed $952 million of the total. "Earnings, while still strong," Watt said, "would have been more in line with recent annual System earnings, without this non-recurring settlement income." The consistent profitability of the System...(read more)

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5/25/2017 9:06:10 AM

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Montana may have its issues with politicians vying for the WWE title belt, but the state does seem to steer clear of cyberattacks. At least, it does in this hypnotic hacking attempt map . PHH & CFPB drama continues Yesterday the Court of Appeals rehearing of the CFPB/PHH case took place to determine the constitutionality of CFPB's leadership structure. Remember that in October (time flies) the initial decision by the court determined the CFPB was, in fact, unconstitutional. Yesterday's hearing was an "en banc" review, previously agreed upon in February. Attorney Brian Levy with Katten & Temple, LLP, contributed, "I just finished listening to the entire 90+ minute oral argument in the PHH Case before the entire DC Circuit sitting en banc. Please allow me save you and your readers some...(read more)

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5/25/2017 7:50:59 AM

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Tuesday of this week was a bit alarming for bond markets as it introduced the possibility that yields were opting for upward momentum after bottoming out amid last week's political drama. If we'd seen additional weakness yesterday, the case might have been closed on the momentum reversal (i.e. a shift back toward a trend higher in yields). Instead, the combination of a strong 5yr auction and friendly Fed minutes helped bonds find their footing. Whatever happens in the last day and a half of this week is likely of little consequence now that we've seen that bounce. There are two reasons for this. First , any additional weakness would have to carry 10yr yields over 2.305 in order to fundamentally alter the bigger picture--namely that yields have generally broken below 2.305 after...(read more)

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5/25/2017 7:14:18 AM


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